The economy has shifted into Expansion, earnings growth is broader and stronger than we expected, and we are raising our 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 on $330 of EPS. However, we are also cutting our year-end multiple to 24.5. From here, returns will need to come from earnings growth, not multiple exp...
Corporate health remains supportive of tight credit spreads in both the US and Europe, but a growing divide is emerging beneath the surface. Investment-grade issuers continue to strengthen, while lower-rated borrowers face mounting pressures. Credit markets are pricing resilience, leaving investors ...
The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions. A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across frontier a...
The most vulnerable households have whittled down their real debt balances while achieving significant real wealth gains. The combination has made consumption more resilient to income hiccups than in past cycles....
AI is transformative, yet tech stocks may not produce positive returns. Market cycles have not disappeared. Greed and fear will still produce large share price fluctuations. Meanwhile, US inflation is the key near-term risk. Global non-tech capex aspirations also look overstated....
A surefire way to make money is to buy stocks in industries experiencing shortages. AI supply-chain bottlenecks will persist for the next few years but markets will price in relief before then....
