Latest from BCA Research
The perfectly synchronised moves in US, Japanese, German, and UK 30-year bond yields through the past two months are odd… and irrational. These irrational moves present compelling investment opportunities.
The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.
Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget deficit contained but they are inflationary.
This month, we flip the order of our chartpack. We focus on the secular/long-term first. Both because we think that we have something profound to say and because we believe that our tactical call has very little new value-add. We remain convinced, as we have been for over a year, that President Trump is not willing to upend decades of US trade policy.
Investors often rely on past relationships to predict future outcomes. This strategy is at risk now that several commodity correlations have broken down. We explore the causes and sustainability of the new commodity relationships.
While the US is the pioneer, Europe will follow suit—more rapidly than expected. It is not a question of if GenAI will boom in Europe, but when. Europe’s Data Center growth is already strong today, but a US-style boom is just around the corner.
