Economy
US durable goods orders delivered a positive signal for the business spending outlook. The 1.4% increase in new orders for durable goods in February marks the first expansion in three months and beat expectations of a 1.0% rise. Increases in new orders for…
The US equity rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices for the S&P 500 stabilizing over the past month. Indeed, this has coincided with a shift in market leadership. Energy, Materials,…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – firmed to 0.05 in February from -0.54, and surpassed expectations it would remain in negative (below-average growth) territory. All four categories of…
The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…
Swedish economic data is usually good at sniffing out the outlook for global growth. Looking at a broad swath of indicators, from domestic conditions to barometers of external demand, our colleagues from BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment…
A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…