Latest from BCA Research

Corporate bond spreads are tight around the globe and do not adequately compensate for the risk of a deterioration in credit quality. We examine the global corporate credit landscape to identify which markets are best equipped to perform in the current environment.

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays for if a US recession is not imminent, avoiding value traps, and which sectors exhibit the highest dividend payers.

This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan presents a new indicator that investors can use to track the odds of bubble formation in real time and shows how it fits into a larger framework that accurately explains US bear market severity over the past century. The US equity market is not in a bubble today, but it is meaningfully overvalued. Investors should expect a relatively severe cumulative loss from equities in a recession scenario.