Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks....
Commodity currencies have been rather resilient, despite the broad rise in the dollar this year. In our view, we are about to experience a big rotation in commodity currency market performance at the crosses, from NZD, to CAD and finally to AUD....
Is China completely abandoning its dynamic zero-COVID policy? When will the economy start recovering? What are the implications for Chinese stocks and China-related assets? Have authorities provided enough financing to property developers? Will developers be able to repay these loans and, if not, wh...
We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl, with an upside bias, anticipating a successful – if chaotic – re-opening in China beginning in 1Q23....
Web 3.0 plays will boom in the coming decade. Play this through a diversified exposure to today’s main blockchain tokens. But the Web 2.0 oligopolies, like Amazon and Meta, are in big trouble....
The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry....
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints....
Such high concentration obstructs portfolio diversification and obscures the valuations and performance of the more diverse constituents in the group. It also increases stock selection risk, making the job of asset allocators much more difficult....
